Impacts of Urban Rail Transit on On-Road Carbon Emissions: A Structural Equation Modeling Approach

We examine the effects of urban rail transit on on-road carbon emissions in 90 Chinese cities, taking a structural equation modeling approach. Urban theoretically helps mitigate overall transport-sector by absorbing part vehicular traffic demand or generating traffic-diversion effects. However, its net contribution is obscure, given potential traffic-creation effects, since improved access can also incentivize new developments and thus induce additional traffic. In contrast to many existing studies that neglect transit’s we analyze these opposing within single framework, where primary rail-associated emission channels are explicitly modeled. Our central results show density negatively associated with elasticity −0.0175, speaking for dominance China’s context. mixed evidence exists increased vehicle-kilometers traveled vehicle ownership, two being relatively balanced. These findings suggest mitigation needs coordination between development planning regulations.